PEOPLE FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
HUMAN SURVIVAL PROJECT
TIME FOR DE-ESCALATION NOT ESCALATION AS PUTIN PUTS NUCLEAR FORCES ON HIGHEST ALERT
President Putin last night put Russia's nuclear forces, the largest in the world, onto their highest alert level, ordering his military commander in chief General Gerasimov put them into a regime of 'special combat duty'.
The move is widely seen as intimidatory. Putin said he had done this in light of the 'hostile rhetoric' over his invasion of Ukraine, from the west.
One wonders what did he expect.
While – hopefully – it does not mean nuclear war tomorrow it does ramp up the level of angst, and presumably makes a launch of strategic weapons faster and easier.
Unlike in the US, a nuclear launch does have to be signed off by at least two people. However if one of them is President Putin it's unlikely the other person (which might be General Gerasimov or the minister of Defense) would oppose such a decision.
It seems that Putin also placed his nuclear forces on high alert back in 2014 when he took over Crimea.
The move follows Putins threat to any who opposed his invasion of Ukraine of consequences 'never experienced before in their history', followed by explicit references to Russia's nuclear strength.
The unwelcome move does not in and of itself initiate the apocalypse but it does make sequences that would do so much easier. It makes it more likely that out of miscalculation, malfunction, or malware, an escalation could take place from, say, the launch of conventional Iskander missiles, to a launch of tactical nuclear ones, and, via the destruction of eastern and central Europe, to global strategic nuclear war.
A global strategic nuclear war would be likely to involve Australia as Australia hosts the 'Joint Facilities' of Pine Gap and Northwest Cape, both critically important US command and control facilities, and very high priority targets.
It has been said that in the event of a nuclear war 'missiles will fly everywhere'. There is a distinct possibility in that case, that large Australian cities particularly if they host military facilities, could be targets, putting millions of Australians at risk.
Worldwide, a global strategic nuclear war would involve the targeting of both military facilities and cities. The targeting of the latter would result in:
--A prompt body count in excess of a billion, and perhaps as much as 2-3 billion.
--The injection of appx 150 million tonnes of very dark smoke into the upper atmosphere, creating a 'nuclear winter' that would drop global temperatures to levels lower than those of the last ice age.
The majority of humans would die.
Does Putin know that this could be the result of his actions?
This most recent order most emphatically puts the apocalypse right back on the global agenda exactly where it shouldn't be.
What is required is of course the exact opposite of this kind of action.
What is needed is a replacement of fighting by negotiation, no matter how immediately unsatisfactory, and a stand-down of nuclear forces.
The same decision-making that has raised the alert level of Russian nuclear forces can take them back down.
The scheduled meeting between Zelensky and Russian negotiators – if it takes place – must be seen as a very serious negotiating opportunity. It is an opportunity that must not be squandered.
Over the longer term, measures urgently need to be negotiated that will lower the immediate risk of nuclear war, accidental or otherwise, and eliminate nuclear weapons altogether.
A vital step on this road would be the adoption of policies of No First Use by both the US and Russia.
John Hallam
Nuclear Disarmament Campaigner
People for Nuclear Disarmament
Human Survival Project
Co-Convener, Abolition 2000 Working Group on Nuclear Risk Reduction
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