90 SECONDS TO THE POTENTIAL END OF THE WORLD: TIME TO SIGN THE TPNW, LEAD ON NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION

Wednesday, 25 January 2023 16:09 John Hallam
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 25/26 JAN 2023

PEOPLE FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

HUMAN SURVIVAL PROJECT

90 SECONDS TO THE POTENTIAL END OF THE WORLD: TIME TO SIGN THE TPNW, LEAD ON NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION

With the iconic Doomsday Clock of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (founded by Einstein and Oppenheimer) sitting at an unprecedented 90 metaphorical seconds to midnight (where 'midnight' represents global nuclear catastrophe), the situation in nuclear disarmament and in nuclear risk is grimmer than it has ever been, ever.

https://thebulletin.org/doomsday-clock/current-time/

 

In the lead-up to the Doomsday Clock announcement, a group of nobel prizewinning physicists have warned that Europe stands on the brink of thermonuclear war.

https://physicsworld.com/a/nobel-laureates-warn-ukraine-crisis-is-bringing-europe-closer-to-nuclear-war/

 

To underline the grimness of the situation, in recent days a number of senior Russian spokespeople (Former president Medvedev, the speaker of the Russian Parliament (https://www.politico.eu/article/top-russia-official-vyacheslav-volodin-threatens-west-with-global-catastrophe-over-weapons-to-ukraine-war/ ) have repeated threats that unless Russia wins in Ukraine they will initiate global thermonuclear war.

https://coinchapter.com/russia-threatens-severe-retaliation-including-global-catastrophe-nuclear-war-if-the-west-arms-ukraine/

 

The US-based DEFCON organisation whose guesstimate of global nuclear danger may or may not have some connection with the Pentagon's DEFCON, has re-set its DEFCON level to DEFCON-3. DEFCON-5 represents normalcy, DEFCON 1 represents nuclear war. The highest Pentagon DEFCON we have ever had is DEFCON-2, in 1962 and last (2022) February to April. The Pentagon has never gone to DEFCON-1.

https://www.defconlevel.com/current-level.php

 

The situation with the risk of global thermonuclear war, an event sequence in which it is guesstimated that most humans would most likely perish either immediately (first 90 minutes-24 hours) in city firestorms or in the ensuing decade from famine in the freezing dark – is thus, as grim as it is possible to be without actually HAVING a global thermonuclear war.

 

Australia can make a difference! We can either help to save the world from catastrophe, or do our non inconsiderable bit to make one less likely. We can help to roll back the hands of the Doomsday Clock.

 

The urgency of doing so has never been clearer.

 

The ALP and the overwhelming majority of its parliamentary caucus have made it abundantly clear that they want to sign, ratify, and encourage other governments to sign and ratify, the TPNW or 'Ban Treaty'. Immediately before the Doomsday Clock-Hands announcement, a large group of parliamentarians called for urgent action on this. There is no excuse. It must be done yesterday.

 

In addition, even prior to the election of the Albanese Government, Australia's own DFAT was making it clear that it was deeply concerned over mounting risks of nuclear war, and was prepared to take action over nuclear risk reduction. Nuclear risk reduction is not as 'sexy' as nuclear abolition, but buys breathing space while abolition gathers pace, and clears the way for abolition by making nuclear weapons less important in security policies and postures. Risk reduction consists of initiatives like No First Use,(https://nofirstuse.global/), Reducing the alert status of nuclear weapons systems, improved mil to mil communications, avoidance of provocative military exercises with military capable forces, and other commonsense measures that might just make the difference between having a global nuclear war and not having one. A comprehensive list of nuclear risk reduction measures is on the Abolition 2000 nuclear risk reduction working group website.

https://www.abolition2000.org/en/working-groups/nuclear-risk-reduction/

 

Whether or not Australia signs the TPNW, and while we make up our mind to sign it, there can be no argument against our taking a global lead in promoting measures that could determine whether or not civilisation survives next week, next month, next year.

 

It is beyond time for Australia to cease hesitating on both the TPNW and taking a lead in promoting nuclear risk reduction such as No First Use. These are not alternatives: they go hand in hand. We must do both. The clock is ticking. Time is running out.

 

John Hallam

People for Nuclear Disarmament

Human Survival Project

Co-Convenor, Abolition 2000 Nuclear Risk Reduction Working Group

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