PEOPLE FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
HUMAN SURVIVAL PROJECT
DPRK NUKE TEST PROBABLY INEVITABLE:
MEANWHILE US, RUSSIA, MAINTAIN 2000 WARHEADS ON HIGH ALERT
NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT OF EXISTENTIAL IMPORTANCE
DPRK TEST SHOULD HAVE BEEN IGNORED
While the DPRK nuclear test that seemingly took place earlier today was
probably inevitable and unstoppable, and while it is indeed an event
that could cascade into a round of further nuclear weapons
proliferation and that bodes no good for anyone, it has taken place
in a context in which the 'official' nuclear powers, and in
particular the US and Russia, continue to maintain 2000 large and
highly reliable warheads between them on long – range missiles that
are guaranteed to work as designed, and are able to be launched in
literally tens of seconds.
Meanwhile, the very vehemence with which the US and others pressed the DPRK NOT
to test almost certainly guaranteed that it WOULD test. The threats
of pre-emptive strikes recently uttered by South Korea and the US
have certainly not helped to calm the atmosphere.
The sad fact is that the best thing to have done with the DPRK's threats
to perform a nuclear test would have been not to make counter-threats, and not to draw any attention whatsoever to an
activity that should be regarded as pointless and silly. Thetest should have been ignored.
A number of questions will naturally now arise from the test. It will
be asked if the test represents any significant increase in the
DPRK's nuclear capabilities. Almost certainly it does. It will be
asked if the DPRK can actually mount its warheads on a missile. As
Pakistan manages to mount its warheads on what are essentially North
Korean Nodong missiles, it would seem improbable that the DPRK cannot
do so itself, giving it the capability to threaten not only Seoul,
but Beijing and Tokyo.
However, there are two questions that overshadow all else in importance:
1. Will the DPRK test de-rail whatever impetus there is toward nuclear disarmament and global zero? If that is so, the implications for human survival itself could be troubling, as the abolition of nuclear weapons is literally a human survival imperative.
2. Will the DPRK test cause a cascade of proliferation in Japan, Taiwan, and the RoK? If so again, the number of itchy fingers on nuclear triggers will increase not by one, but by a further three, countries and the likelihood of a nuclear exchange will increase not by addition but by multiplication.
It is of literally existential importance – (and with the Nuclear
Nonproliferation Treaty prep-com coming up in Geneva 22April to 3
May) – that no further steps be taken to inflame the situation,
which has already been allowed to escalate more than far enough, and
that global nuclear disarmament remain on track to complete global
The DPRK's threats to test, and the test itself, should have been given
the attention they deserve: namely, none whatsoever.
The hysteria surrounding the test has been exactly what the DPRK
wanted all along, and the world is now in a worse situation because