HIROSHIMA DAY 6 AUG NAGASAKI DAY 9 AUG

PEOPLE FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

HUMAN SURVIVAL PROJECT

TRUMP, PUTIN, URGED TO LOWER SPIRALLING RISKS OF NUCLEAR WAR



HIROSHIMA DAY RALLY
SAT AUG 11TH 11AM TOWN HALL SQUARE SYDNEY
DETAILS OF RALLY: RADHIKA, HIROSHIMA DAY CTEE 9749-0409


The Hiroshima Day (6 Aug) and Nagasaki Day (9 Aug) anniversaries of the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, are upon us.


A number of internationally-based nuclear disarmament groups have written a letter urging President Trump and President Putin to get together once more and to take urgent steps to lower the spiralling risks of a nuclear war.


If it ever took place, nuclear war would most likely destroy 'civilization', kill most humans in a relatively short time, and condemn those who had not been vaporized or fried in the first 90 minutes to freeze in the darkness created from the burning of cities.

Russia and the United States between them posses over 90% of all the nuclear warheads that exist. They each share the ability to make the world uninhabitable in just over an hour, and have come frighteningly close to doing so on around a dozen terrifying occasions. Each has just under 1000 warheads capable of being launched in less than 2 minutes.

Just a day or two ago, former US Secretary of Defense William Perry, warned that the US and Russia remain poised on the brink of nuclear catastrophe, with risks as high as during the cold war. According to some analysts, those risks are actually HIGHER now that during the cold war, when there were well-established 'rules of the road' that have now been forgotten.

Over the last 12 months, dire warnings of potential apocalypse have been issued by Perry, by the advisory committee of the Doomsday Clock (with 15 nobel prizewinners on it), by Mikhail Gorbachev, by Pope Francis, and by former commanders of both US and Russian nuclear forces.

According to John Hallam, People for Nuclear Disarmament UN nuclear disarmament campaigner and co-convener of the Abolition2000 Working Group on Reducing Nuclear Risks,

“It is ridiculous, irresponsible, and dangerous beyond belief, that the Helsinki summit has been called the 'treason summit'. Whatever we think of either Trump or Putin, the cold hard fact is that a US-Russia nuclear confrontation would kill most of us humans and leave conditions in which those who did not immediately die would have great difficulty to survive. Reducing the risk of an accidental (or not so accidental) nuclear conflict between the US and Russia, is key to the survival of civilization and of humans as a species. There is a smorgasbord of commonsense measures in the letter we wrote to Presidents Putin and Trump that would do much to take the apocalypse off the global agenda, where it has been ever since the early 1960's. It doesn't matter who manages to negotiate these measures – whoever does so can be regarded as having secured the future of humanity. Whoever refuses to do so is playing American and Russian roulette with the entire human race. The gravity of this issue is such that other issues – including interference in other countries elections – pale into utter insignificance.”

“It goes without saying that nuclear weapons that do not exist cannot threaten human survival. Both Russia and the US are signatories to a treaty (the NPT) article VI of which, honestly interpreted, obliges them to eliminate their nuclear arsenals by 'an early date', a time that has long since passed. The Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), a treaty the nuclear weapon states have unanimously (and misguidedly) rejected, but which every single one of them should have signed 'yesterday', outlaws nuclear weapons. Australia should sign and ratify the TPNW immediately, and vigorously lobby others including the US and Russia, to do likewise.”

The letter on risk reduction was faxed and emailed last week to President Trump, President Putin, US and Russian officials, and US congressional subcommittees on strategic forces.

A rally against nuclear weapons will take place at 11am in Town Hall Square Sydney on 11August. Speakers include Joseph Gerson of the American Friends Service Committee, and Prof. Tilman Ruff of ICAN.

Inquiries re the Sat 11th rally, Radhika, 9749-0409



Inquiries re this press-release:
John Hallam
People for Nuclear Disarmament
Human Survival Project

UN Nuclear Disarmament Campaigner

Co-Convener, Abolition 2000 Working Group on Reducing Nuclear Risks

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61-411-854-612




PEOPLE FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
www.pndnsw.org.au
HUMAN SURVIVAL PROJECT
https://www.facebook.com/ Human-Survival-Project- 388802504634024/

MEETING BETWEEN PRESIDENTS PUTIN AND TRUMP SCHEDULED FOR WASHINGTON/MOSCOW 2019

John Hallam
People for Nuclear Disarmament
Human Survival Project 
UN Nuclear Weapons Campaigner
Co-Convenor, Abolition 2000 Working Group on Reducing Nuclear Risks
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Attn
President Donald Trump
President Vladimir Putin
Select Committees on Nuclear Forces, US Congress

Dear Presidents Trump and Putin:

I am writing to you to underline the extreme importance of a second meeting between you, either in Washington or Moscow, following on from the Helsinki meeting.

I would write thus, no matter who was the President of the US and who was the President of Russia, as the issues concerned are of an importance that makes other considerations all-but irrelevant.

I refer of course, to the possibility of nuclear war between the USA and Russia, an event that would, it is generally agreed, end what we call 'civilization' and could possibly put human survival itself into question. The importance of this issue dwarfs all other considerations.

As you are no doubt well aware, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists 'Doomsday Clock', whose hands are moved with advice from a committee of Nobel prize-winners and nuclear weapons experts, has its hands set at '2 minutes to midnight'. This is the closest it has been since 1953, when it was also at 2 mins to midnight. It has never been closer.

Others, notably Mikhail Gorbachev and former US defense secretary William Perry, have likewise warned that the likelihood of nuclear war is as great as it has ever been.

These issues, and not possible election interference, should have been at the very top of both your agendas (and at the top of the agenda of the 'commentariat') when you both met in Helsinki. Some reference was made to these issues in your joint communique afterwards, but little definite was said and no commitments to any particular actions seem to have been made. It is not possible to know what part nuclear weapons may or may not have played in your discussions, though it should have been a key consideration.

A group of NGOs did of course write to both of you prior to Helsinki about these issues. That letter is attached to electronic versions of this one. This NGO letter makes a series of suggestions, none of them new, but all of them important, that would do much to diminish the risk of a US-Russia nuclear war.

http://www.pndnsw.org.au/ component/content/article/48- pnd-newsflash/382-trump-- putin-summit.html

I note that a recent article in Newsweek by Jonathan Granoff of the Global Security Institute has emphasized the importance of a meeting between the two of you to discuss nuclear weapons-related issues. Granoff notes that:

“Presidents Putin and Trump have a fundamental responsibility to go beyond rhetoric and work together to protect the planet and eliminate nuclear weapons. Ensuring humanity’s survival trumps other concerns. Not only is another meeting in their personal and political interests, it’s in the national and global interest.”

I note that President Putin has already signaled an interest in improved 'military – to military' communication, an item that was important in that NGO letter. I note that President Putin has also signaled an interest in extending the New START Treaty. 

I urge you to meet in Washington and to do so sooner rather than later.

I urge you to ignore the confected partizan cries of 'treason', as you negotiate on matters that if allowed to drift may end up with an uninhabitable planet – something that is in no-ones interest.

I urge non-participants and commentators on a putative Washington meeting to supports its taking place as a matter of existential priority, and to urge that it be focussed on nuclear risk reduction and disarmament. I would urge that election interference and other matters be declared 'out of bounds' both for discussions and for media conferences afterwards.

I urge that the two of you should reaffirm the statement by Reagan and Gorbachev, that 'A nuclear War cannot be won and must never be fought'.

I urge that the two of you, together with the relevant advisers on nuclear strategy, discuss ways to decrease the immediate risk of an (advertent or inadvertent) nuclear war, by:

--A mutual agreement never to use nuclear weapons first, and never to initiate nuclear war
--Lowering the state of operational readiness of nuclear weapon systems so that it is no longer necessary for Presidents to make potentially civilization-ending decisions within highly compressed timeframes
--Improved and/or re-created military to military communication
--Final implementation of the many times reaffirmed agreement between your two governments to create a Joint Data Exchange Centre in Moscow.(JDEC).
--Cessation of military exercises in eastern Europe (by both NATO and Russia) that either make use of nuclear – armed forces, or that might be perceived as doing so.
--Cessation of all exercises that might be perceived by the other party as being provocative, or that might have the potential to escalate into serious conflict
--Cessation of potentially provocative aircraft movement by either side.

I urge that President Putin's interest in the extension of New START be reciprocated. New START should be extended.

I urge that a successor to New START be negotiated with significantly lower numbers of warheads, and with a clearly stated objective of going to zero.

I urge that Russia and the United States take seriously, and discuss, their unfulfilled obligation under Article VI of the NPT to actually achieve the complete and total elimination of their nuclear arsenals.

In doing so you need to set up an ongoing process at a somewhat less exalted, and more detailed, level than the two of you. I suggest that you agree to create an ongoing joint US-Russia task force on nuclear risk reduction and disarmament, comprised of arms control experts and senior arms control and nonproliferation diplomats, who would be tasked to do this, and who would meet regularly on an ongoing basis to achieve the aims set out above.

John Hallam
People for Nuclear Disarmament
Human Survival Project
Abolition2000 Working Group on Nuclear Risk Reduction
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m61-411-854-612 



SUN 22 JULY 2018

PEOPLE FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
HUMAN SURVIVAL PROJECT
www.pndnsw.org.au
https://www.facebook.com/ Human-Survival-Project- 388802504634024/

ANOTHER 'TREASON SUMMIT' OR THREE?
YES ABSOLUTELY!
US-RUSSIA DIALOGUE IS AN EXISTENTIAL NECESSITY THAT 'TRUMPS' EVERY OTHER CONSIDERATION

THE REAL ISSUE ISNT RUSSIAN ELECTION 'BOTS'. ITS POSSIBLE GLOBAL THERMONUCLEAR WAR.

With the hands of the 'doomsday clock' closer to midnight than they have ever been (at least since 1953), and with the real risk of nuclear conflict between Russia and the USA as great as it has ever been, dialogue – on a sustained and repeated basis, not just a one – off – is a life and death necessity for the US, for Russia, and for the whole world.

Whatever we think of either Donald Trump and Putin – and neither are attractive examples of liberal or progressive democracy to put it mildly – and whatever Putin might or might not 'have' on Trump, to open a process of dialogue on US-Russian relations overall, and on nuclear disarmament, arms-control and above all on nuclear risk reduction, is of existential importance. And it is this not whether or not Russian 'bots' were interfering in a US election, that governs whether or not civilization will still be here ten, twenty, a hundred, years down the track and whether or not there will be a nuclear arms race in the immediate future.

The world was lucky to have survived the cold war. A second round of this kind of behavior may not find us so lucky. Yet critics such as Ryan, Mc Cain and others who bay to hold Putin (and Trump) 'accountable' tempt fate in just this way. Such behavior and such rhetoric is itself unbelievably irresponsible.

At the Helsinki press conference Trump noted somewhat lamely that the US had 'made mistakes' in its relationship with Russia. He has been lambasted and called 'traitor' for what was in fact a hardly adequate admission of what is indeed the truth. Or a tenth of the truth.

Self-criticism by the President of the US (and for that matter criticism of NATO) are not treason. They may be plain honesty. Its a pity Trump did it so badly and did not mention that it was precisely the expansion of NATO eastwards after 1990 that has put Russia so much offside.

This does not mean that Trump is innocent as driven snow. It does mean that his current critics simply don't get what really is in the interests of the United States and mistakenly think that any concession to Putin even the utterly inadequate ones Trump has made (has he in fact made any at all?) - is treason.

This kind of confrontational thinking merely drives Russia into the corner, from which it launches the worlds most powerful nuclear weapons, showcased the day before Yesterday.

Absolutely there should be more meetings between Trump and Putin. They should discuss not the 2016 election – a subject that should be firmly off – limits – but should focus on reducing the risk of an (accidental or otherwise) nuclear apocalypse. They should focus on agreeing an extension to the New START treaty, on lowering the operational readiness of nuclear weapon systems so Presidents don't have just six minutes to decide whether or not to destroy civilization, on improving or restoring military-to military communication (a subject in which Putin has already indicated interest), on establishing the 'joint data exchange centre' agreed in 1998 and reaffirmed multiple times by both governments but never implemented, and on agreements never to use nuclear weapons first/initiate nuclear war.

And they should set up a joint task force to make recommendations on reducing the risk of nuclear war and on how to abolish their nuclear arsenals altogether.

In the current fevered state of public debate it would be understandable if they did this behind closed doors.

These topics may sound wonkish and technical, but its on these seemingly abstruse issues that human survival and the survival of what we (mis) call 'civilization' may depend.

It goes without saying that this needs to be done in at atmosphere of mutual respect and without posturing and name-calling.

We may not like Putin. We may not like Trump. The author of this release doesn't like either of them. That is irrelevant. The survival of the plant simply 'trumps' everything.

The measures that the US and Russia ought to be taking are outlined in the appeal made a week prior to the Helsinki Summit by the Abolition 2000 Working Group on Nuclear Risk Reduction, People for Nuclear Disarmament, and the Human Survival Project.(urls below)

John Hallam
UN Nuclear Disarmament Campaigner
People for Nuclear Disarmament
Human Survival Project
Co-Convener, Abolition 2000 Working Group on Nuclear Risk Reduction

www.pndnsw.org.au
http://www.abolition2000.org/ en/nuclear-risk-reduction/
https://www.facebook.com/ Human-Survival-Project- 388802504634024/
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61-411-854-612

APPEAL ON NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION TO PRESIDENTS PUTIN AND TRUMP,
NATO MEETING 11-12 JULY

PEOPLE FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
HUMAN SURVIVAL PROJECT

ABOLITION 2000 WORKING GROUP ON NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION

Dear NATO Ministers of Defense and Foreign Affairs, and Presidents Trump and Putin:

Last January, as is well known, the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, at the advice of its board of sponsors, on which sit nobel prizewinners and respected experts on nuclear weapons risks, moved the hands of its iconic 'doomsday clock', which has monitored how close or otherwise humans are to self-destruction, from three minutes to 'midnight' to a frightening two figurative minutes to 'midnight'.

The Bulletin's Board of Sponsors has not been the only body or person to sound the alarm on rising risks of nuclear war: similar warnings were issued by Mikhail Gorbachev, Pope Francis, former US Defense Secretary Bill Perry, and by former commanders of both US and Russian nuclear missile forces.

Since those warnings have been issued, there have been periods in which the risk of nuclear weapons being used, both between the US and the DPRK, but even more frighteningly, between the US and Russia, have seemed to 'spike', for days, weeks, and even months. Then a breakthrough of some kind takes place and the risks recede for a while, only for the cycle to repeat itself. This cannot go on forever: An indefinite number of spins of the roulette barrel sooner or later will produce a shot.

The use of nuclear weapons between the US and the DPRK would be a catastrophe with global implications, with an immediate body count in excess of all the casualties of the whole of WW-II. The use of nuclear weapons in Europe and Russia (and then likely the US and China) would be a global catastrophe similar in scale to that which wiped out the dinosaurs, in which what we call 'civilization' would end, and in which human survival itself could not be assured. Even if humans as a species did survive, most land-based living species would not.

We wish to express our alarm at the current elevated state of risk of nuclear weapons use. One cannot play American, Russian, or Korean roulette with the species, civilization, and the planet as a whole indefinitely: At some point, our luck will run out. Malfunction, miscalculation, madness malice or malware will produce catastrophe.

We would like to urge both the upcoming July 11-12 meeting of NATO, and the July 16 meeting between Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump to take concrete practical measures that will lower these risks.

Many other appeals and prescriptions for risk reduction, largely overlapping with this one, have been made in recent years and months. We strongly support all of those and draw unashamedly from all of them. These include:

--All the measures listed in the Abolition 2000 working group on nuclear risk reduction of which this letters author is a co-convener:
http://www.abolition2000.org/ en/nuclear-risk-reduction/

--The July 10 2016 appeal by the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly, calling for a lowering of nuclear weapons alert status, or a nuclear weapons stand-down.
http://www.pnnd.org/article/ osce-parliamentary-assembly- calls-nuclear-weapons-stand- down

--The measures proposed by IDN of France, to diminish the risk of nuclear catastrophe:
http://www..idn-france.org/ 2018/06/mesures-urgentes- proposees-idn-eviter- catastrophe-nucleaire/

--The Appeal by IDN for the removal of tactical nuclear weapons from Europe:
http://www.abolition2000.org/ wp-content/uploads/2018/06/ IDN-IT-IS-URGENT-TO-ELIMINATE- NUCLEAR-TACTICAL-WEAPONS-IN- EUROPE.pdf

--The Appeal to Leaders of Nuclear-Armed states by women parliamentarians, organized by Parliamentarians for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament (PNND)
http://www.pnnd.org/article/ common-security-sustainable- and-nuclear-weapon-free-world

The policy prescriptions contained in all of these appeals are mutually reinforcing and overlapping, and it is possible and necessary to support all of them, which we do most strongly.

There are however a few obvious measures that should be discussed both at the NATO summit and at the Trump-Putin summit.

--Tactical nuclear weapons, whether in Kaliningrad, Crimea, Turkey, Italy or Germany, constitute a kind of nuclear 'tripwire'. Considered more 'usable' than strategic nuclear weapons, their use is nonetheless likely to lead on to the massive use of strategic nuclear weapons. Many of them have yields not meaningfully distinguishable from strategic nuclear weapons. Their use should be made more difficult not easier.

--The conducting of exercises with nuclear capable military equipment, and in particular the conducting of 'mirror-imaged' or 'back-to back' Russian and NATO exercises in relatively close proximity is incredibly dangerous and provocative. In the recent past however, a number of such exercises have taken place. The mind boggles at the potential for disaster, should something have gone wrong or should there have been serious misunderstandings of each others intentions. Such exercises should never take place.

--In the past, Russia and NATO have had relatively good and respectful military-to-military communications and a relatively high level of mutual transparency. This is no longer the case. Military to military communications both on an informal and personal basis, and more formally, need to be restored and upgraded.

--The Idea for a Joint Data Exchange Centre in Moscow, discussed between the US and Russia since 1998, and reaffirmed as an intention three or four times at least, should finally be implemented. The possibility of NATO and China also participating should be explored.

--Russia and the US, followed by (or preceded by ) NATO nuclear weapon states should declare that they will not use nuclear weapons first. (No First Use). Currently India and China have such formal policies.

--Nuclear postures that mandate either various forms of 'launch on warning' or 'launch under (presumed) attack' should be abolished. It is far too easy for computer or sensor malfunction to produce false attack warnings that, if believed, initiate the apocalypse, and this has come close to taking place in both Russia and the USA on a frighteningly large number of occasions. Semantic debates about whether US forces are 'really' on 'hair trigger' do nothing to reduce the very real risks of a nuclear exchange bought about by nothing more significant than sun reflected off high clouds over North Dakota that looked to Soviet surveillance satellite systems exactly like a series of launches (1983), a research rocket that looked like an SLBM launch (1995) and software and hardware glitches that looked to US systems like thousands of incoming warheads.

In the slightly longer run, assuming we are all still here, the need is to:

--Extend the New START treaty so that we are not in a position where nothing constrains nuclear weapons expansion on either side. Absent a New START extension, this is the position we will be in, risking a new/renewed nuclear arms race.

--Adopt nuclear postures and security policies whose entire purpose is to diminish the role of nuclear weapons.

These would go some way to making thinkable, and possible, the fulfillment of the nuclear-armed states Art VI NPT obligations.


Signed:

John Hallam
UN Nuclear Disarmament Campaigner
People for Nuclear Disarmament
Human Survival Project
Co-Convener, Abolition 2000 Working Group on Nuclear Risk Reduction

www.pndnsw.org.au
http://www.abolition2000.org/ en/nuclear-risk-reduction/
https://www.facebook.com/ Human-Survival-Project- 388802504634024/
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61-411-854-612

Prof. Emerit.. Frank Hutchinson, UNE,
Human Survival Project
Council for Peace and Justice, (CPJ)
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https://www.facebook.com/ Human-Survival-Project- 388802504634024/

Alyn Ware,
World Future Council, London UK
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Marc Finaud
(Bureau Member, Initiatives pour le Désarmement nucléaire IDN