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Home Articles Flashpoints Letter to Prime Minister Elect Anthony Albanese on Nuclear Risk Reduction

Letter to Prime Minister Elect Anthony Albanese on Nuclear Risk Reduction

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 SUN 22 MAY 2022

NUCLEAR WEAPONS NUCLEAR WAR

PEOPLE FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

http://www.pndnsw.org.au

HUMAN SURVIVAL PROJECT

 

Anthony Albanese Prime Minister Elect

Senator Penny Wong
Richard Marles MP

cc

House of Representatives

Senate

Media

NGOs

 

Dear Prime Minister Anthony Albanese,

Hearty congratulations on becoming Prime Minister and on a well deserved election victory.

I put out a press-release about a week ago, in which I noted that the 'end of the world' (meaning global thermonuclear war that would/could end so – called 'civilisation') was not part of the election campaign, though given that the world is closer to a potentially civilisation- ending event sequence than it has ever been, ever, (with the possible exception of the very height of the cuban missile crisis) – it should have been.

Both the ALP and the Coalition and even the Greens elected to keep debate to 'bread and butter' issues, even though the election you won took place against a background that is as fraught, and as unstable, as it has ever been at least since 1945. I do believe however that had national security become an issue, a discussion of the closeness of the world to nuclear war could only have benefited the ALP and the Greens.

Just to reiterate: The war in Ukraine has taken the world to the very brink of the nuclear abyss, where to this day we remain suspended. The state of mind of one single individual – Vladimir Putin – could possibly (could, not 'will') set in motion a catastrophic event sequence in which the use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine followed by Poland and or the Baltics, would escalate to strategic nuclear weapons exchanges and global thermonuclear war.

Vladimir Putin, just to underline a point, has made threats of global thermonuclear war repeatedly. President Putin does control the worlds largest and arguably most capable nuclear arsenal. He seems to be terminally ill and is at times suicidal. He has said repeatedly that 'without Russia there is no need for a world'.

Australia can play a vital role in reducing nuclear risks.

--You are off to Tokyo for a meeting of the Quad in one or two days. Global strategic stability needs to be a high priority topic for discussion in any such meeting. While such discussion likely WILL take place, it is likely to be in the form of initiatives to 'counter' a threat from China. More attention should be paid to measures to reduce the risk of events that could all to easily spiral completely and catastrophically out of control.

--Most ALP members of parliament have now signed up to an ICAN initiative supporting the TPNW or 'Ban Treaty'. This should be done expeditiously and Australia should use its not inconsiderable diplomatic weight to encourage others (Japan) to do likewise.

--DFAT has at various times claimed interest in nuclear risk reduction. Immediate-term nuclear risk reduction, via a variety of measures (No First Use, reduction in alert status, improved or resumed mil-to-mil communication, avoidance of provocative exercises close to borders with nuclear armed or nuclear capable military forces), is of critical and immediate importance. A list of possible risk reduction measures can be found at:

https://www.abolition2000.org/en/working-groups/nuclear-risk-reduction/

In the event of a catastrophic escalation to strategic levels between NATO and Russia, Australia will not escape unscathed. Pine Gap and Northwest Cape are amongst the highest priority targets in the entire world, and would be vaporised in the first minutes of an event sequence lasting maybe 90 minutes at the end of which civilisation would be in ruins. The targeting of Australian cities is also very much possible, with Canberra high on the list.

You are urged to give attention to these matters especially in the light of the upcoming Quad meeting, but also in an ongoing sense.

It is very much to be hoped that Australia will both sign and ratify the TPNW and play a prominent and constructive role in international initiatives on nuclear risk reduction.

John Hallam

Nuclear Disarmament Campaigner 

People for Nuclear Disarmament

Co-Convenor, Abolition 2000 Nuclear Risk Reduction Working Group

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61-411-854-612

 

 

THURS 12 MAY 2022

PEOPLE FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

http://www.pndnsw.org.au

HUMAN SURVIVAL PROJECT

END OF THE WORLD CLOSER NOW THAN EVER IN HISTORY?

NOT AN ELECTION ISSUE!

AUSTRALIA NEEDS AN ONGOING PUBLIC DEBATE ON NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION POLICY.

A global thermonuclear war with the potential to end civilisation and make human survival itself problematic, is considered by those with expertise in the area of strategic stability and nuclear weapons policy to be closer to taking place right now than at any time in history including during the tensest parts of the cold war, with the possible exception of the very height of the Cuban Missile Crisis (where Kennedy guesstimated the chances of a global nuclear exchange at between one on three and 50/50), and short periods on Sept 26 1983 and November of the same year. With the Doomsday clock officially at 100 seconds to 'midnight', and with continual threats from Putin and other Russian figures to use tactical nuclear weapons on Ukraine, the use of nuclear weapons – with the escalatory potential to progress to global strategic nuclear war – has never before been so brazenly and unashamedly spoken of.

With the main decision-maker in this matter, President Putin, in bad health and possibly dying, and with his reportedly suicidal moods at times, the mere fact that the use of nuclear weapons would result in his own likely demise cannot be counted on to deter him.

Whether or not the world experiences global thermonuclear war is largely up to decisions that will be taken by a single individual whose rationality and desire for self preservation cannot be taken for granted.

In the (hopefully still unlikely, but we really do not and cannot know) event that things do progress from use of tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine to use of tactical nukes against NATO, to use of strategic nuclear weapons, Australia will be a high priority target.

'Joint installations' at Pine Gap, and Northwest Cape, are critical parts of the US nuclear command and control network. They are not merely just any old target – they are right at the top of the targeting priority list of Russia, China, and the DPRK.

Australian cities are hopefully further down the priority list, but those with naval bases (Sydney, Perth, Darwin) would be targeted for just that. A standard Topol M Russian warhead (800Kt) would produce 3rddegree burns out to Gladesville and damage out to Parramatta if exploded over the CBD.

The ALP has committed (subject to various caveats) to sign on to the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) or Ban Treaty. However, the TPNW will not produce the fruit of global nuclear disarmament for years and the urgent need is for action that will diminish nuclear risks in the immediate term.

ICAN is to be congratulated for its work on the TPNW, both within Australia and internationally. However there is also a need for work on immediate term nuclear risk reduction.

One immediate term measure that can be taken is the adoption of policies and postures of No First Use. In theory if all countries were to adopt and stick by such policies, nuclear war would become impossible because no one would fire first.

Other risk reduction policies include lowering of nuclear weapons alert status, and improved or merely resumed, military to military communications.

A list of possible risk reduction measures can be found at:

https://www.abolition2000.org/en/working-groups/nuclear-risk-reduction/

As things currently stand, we can be thankful if we even make it as far as election day. The risk that a possibly dying and possibly suicidal Putin decides to hit the button is just too great.

The cost of living, housing, interest rates, aged care and health care are all important issues – as long as our medium term survival is not in question.

But our immediate term survival (along with that of the rest of the planet) most emphatically IS in question.

40 years ago, a situation like this would have resulted (and did result in) protests with hundreds of thousands of people.

At the very least, nuclear weapons policy, and how it affects Australia, should be both prominent election issues, and ongoing issues of public discussion.

Yet they are nowhere to be seen.

(If I am wrong I would be glad to be wrong. But thus far I have not seen nukes mentioned at all in the upcoming election).


 

John Hallam

Nuclear Disarmament Campaigner

People for Nuclear Disarmament

Co-Convenor,

Abolition 2000 Working Group on Nuclear Risk Reduction

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0411-854-612