Articles 
PEOPLE FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
HUMAN SURVIVAL PROJECT
NEGOTIATION, NOT ESCALATION, PLEASE
‘A NUCLEAR WAR CANNOT BE WON AND MUST NEVER BE FOUGHT’
President Vladimir Putin
President Joseph Biden
President-Elect Donald Trump
President Volodymyr Zelensky
cc
PM Kier Starmer
President Emmanuel Macron
Chancellor Olof Schulz
President Andrzej Duda
Parliamentary and diplomatic emails (Many)
Whatever the rights and wrongs of the now escalating war between Russia and Ukraine, and whatever the rights and wrongs of Ukraine’s use of ATACMS and other western – supplied missiles on Russia, an escalation of the Russia-Ukraine war to nuclear war, either by use of Russian tactical nukes on Ukraine, or by strikes against NATO countries will result in hours-to-days, in a wider nuclear war that according to every war-game or simulation that has been done, seems most likely to become a total, global, thermonuclear war that will destroy civilisation.
That is to say, it will destroy not just NATO, the US, and US allies such as Australia, but it will also destroy Russia and most likely China as functioning, connected, entities.
In a scenario such as this there can be no winners. It can never be rational to take a step that does not merely destroy the world as we know it, but that destroys ones own country. After a large scale nuclear exchange there will be no US, UK, Germany NATO or Europe.
There will also be no Russia and no China, and even deep bunkers for national leaderships will likely have been hit and the country decapitated.
There will be absolutely nothing to look forward to but 30 or so years of temperatures below those of the last ice – age.
Far more sensible would be to take Donald Trump at his word, and to prepare to de-escalate the war and to engage in bona fide, for real, negotiations that will end it for good. Trump may or may not have a magic formula to end the war, but it would be helpful too all of humanity to help him to do it.
It would be helpful even more, to de-escalate right now, and to prepare to negotiate.
It isn’t appropriate here, and would be overly prescriptive, to say exactly what a negotiated settlement could look like, but such a settlement must:
--Be visibly fair and not ask one party to capitulate to the other.
--Guarantee the security of BOTH sides, not just one side, in a manner that satisfies both sides. A settlement that imposed limitations on one party as to how it met its security needs would not be acceptable. At the same time, both sides will have to accept that they may not get all they might wish for.
--The settlement must be permanent and not be merely a stopgap that will allow resumed fighting within weeks, months, or years. There must be a permanent peace. Nonetheless, a temporary ceasefire may lead to a permanent settlement.
--The settlement might well include demilitarised buffer-zones next to the agreed borders of each party.
--There should be diplomatic recognition of each side by the other.
A settlement that bought about a genuine and lasting peace, while it would seem a long way away right now, could be reached incrementally via a temporary ceasefire coupled with bona fide negotiations.(emphasis on bona fide).
The reaching of a more permanent settlement would have security implications both for Europe and the world.
A major one of these might be a re-negotiation of the New START treaty, that otherwise lapses in 2027, leaving no arms control instruments whatsoever.
Re-negotiation of New START would be a way to put into reverse the current momentum toward a new arms-race, potentially more deadly that the old 'cold war' one. However, renegotiation of New START is a big issue in itself, worthy of its own letter.
As things now stand, the world is trembling on the brink of the abyss. Instead of going over the edge, we need to step back, lower the temperature and the tension,
and move to a position in which it is possible to negotiate a secure future for everyone.
John Hallam
Nuclear Disarmament Campaigner, People for Nuclear Disarmament
Human Survival Project
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61-411-854-612
Prof. Emerit. Frank Hutchinson, Human Survival Project
