PEOPLE FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT
HUMAN SURVIVAL PROJECT
CLOSER TO THE BRINK THAN THE WORLD HAS EVER BEEN, EVER:
GOVERNMENTS MUST PRIORITISE NUCLEAR RISK REDUCTION, ABOLITION
WHY ISN'T A POSSIBLE APOCALYPSE AT THE TOP OF POLITICAL DEBATE?
Last night (2am Sydney time – 10am US east coast time), the Doomsday Clock yet again moved its hands closer than ever towards midnight. ‘Midnight’ in this context means an event sequence that would destroy what we call ‘civilisation’, and probably involve the deaths of all or most humans as well as cataclysmic impacts on global ecosystems.
It is clear from the Clock’s warnings, as usual couched in restrained and dignified language, that the possibility of nuclear war, maybe touched off by escalation in Ukraine weighed heavily in their calculations. However, climate change, unregulated AI, and global pandemics also fed into the calculations of the Doomsday Clock.
A look at the 2025 Doomsday Clock statement issued at 10am East Coast US time on 28th, (2am 29thSydney time) is revealing. Why only one second of advance? One might ask. I hazard a guess that we are running out of seconds.
“In setting the Clock one second closer to midnight, we send a stark signal: Because the world is already perilously close to the precipice, a move of even a single second should be taken as an indication of extreme danger and an unmistakable warning that every second of delay in reversing course increases the probability of global disaster.
In regard to nuclear risk, the war in Ukraine, now in its third year, looms over the world; the conflict could become nuclear at any moment because of a rash decision or through accident or miscalculation. Conflict in the Middle East threatens to spiral out of control into a wider war without warning. The countries that possess nuclear weapons are increasing the size and role of their arsenals, investing hundreds of billions of dollars in weapons that can destroy civilisation. The nuclear arms control process is collapsing, and high-level contacts among nuclear powers are totally inadequate given the danger at hand. Alarmingly, it is no longer unusual for countries without nuclear weapons to consider developing arsenals of their own—actions that would undermine longstanding nonproliferation efforts and increase the ways in which nuclear war could start.”
The world stands, as even without the Doomsday Clock to tell us, closer to the possibility of a civilisation – ending and possibly a (human) species- ending event sequence, than we have ever stood, ever. Yet as a political issue, the apocalypse just doesn't rate. Indeed, discussion of nuclear risks at a political level is almost impossible to initiate. Some progress has been made toward getting governments to sign onto the TPNW, and some progress has been had in getting the G7 and the G20 to reiterate that ‘The use or threat of use of nuclear weapons is impermissible’.
Yet the actual risk of nuclear war remains higher than it ever was during the cold war anytime other than the very peak of the Cuban Missile Crisis, and for a matter of under an hour during the 1983 Serpukhov-15 incident, and a day or so during the Able Archer NATO exercise. We have at least one government that regularly threatens others with incineration.
Nuclear war alone is and remains the single most serious short to medium term threat to everyone and everything. Governments worldwide as well as here in Australia are like Kangaroos at night on a country road, staring mesmerised into the headlights of an oncoming truck.
Immediate measures must be taken to reduce nuclear danger and to abolish nuclear weapons. Australia should both sign, ratify and urge others including especially the nuclear weapon states to sign and ratify, the TPNW. It should as an immediate priority, back initiatives for states with nuclear weapons to adopt postures and policies of No First Use, following up recent Chinese initiatives in that area.
John Hallam
Nuclear Disarmament Campaigner
People for Nuclear Disarmament
Human Survival Project
Co-Convenor, Abolition 2000 Working Group on Nuclear Risk Reduction
Member, No First Use Global Steering Committee
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