PEOPLE FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

PEOPLE FOR NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT

HUMAN SURVIVAL PROJECT

GOVERNMENT NEEDS TO TAKE URGENT ACTION ON NUCLEAR WAR RISKS

GOVT CAN'T IGNORE POSITION OF DOOMSDAY CLOCK, CONSENSUS OF NUCLEAR EXPERTS THAT WORLD IS CLOSER TO NUCLEAR WAR THAN EVER

The world, if we are to believe the consensus of nuclear policy experts, or if we pay attention to the position of the Doomsday Clock at an unprecedented 89 seconds to 'midnight', is closer to nuclear 'midnight' than it has ever been, and closer to 'midnight' than it ever was during either the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962, or during the Serpukhov-15 crisis of Sept 26 1983, or the ensuing Able Archer crisis of October/November 1983 in which the Soviet Union assumed that a NATO rehearsal for the apocalypse was in fact the real thing and postured its nuclear forces accordingly.

Simply, we (the world) have never, ever, been closer to nuclear war than the last year or so.

Even at the height of all of these nuclear crises of the 60's '70s and 80's, explicit nuclear threats were not made, merely hinted at. The closest we got to it was some 'nuclear madman' behaviour by Richard Nixon during the Vietnam war.

Yet threats of nuclear weapons use, and even explicit, gloating, threats to 'vaporise' European cities have been made repeatedly over the years since 2014, and most often and most explicitly since February 2022.

A CIA estimate has suggested that at one point, the likelihood of nuclear weapons use was as high as 50/50.

At the same time, there are continual crises between India and Pakistan, in which the use of nuclear weapons has been very much on the agenda.

Australia has over the years accumulated some reputation for trying to take initiatives that would either diminish the likelihood of nuclear war, or better still, lead to the abolition of nuclear weapons, even as it remains a close ally of the United States.

The Labour Party has repeatedly reaffirmed its intention to sign and ratify the TPNW ('Ban Treaty'). We send observers to the meetings of states parties. But we have made no advance beyond that.

Governments both of Labour and the Coalition have over the years expressed interest in other initiatives such as de-alerting and No First Use, that would diminish the likelihood of nuclear war or nuclear weapons use. For around a decade we voted for the Operational Readiness resolution in UNGA promoted by the De-Alerting Group.

Nothing has come of all this. The fact that the world is closer to nuclear war than it has ever been ever, is not merely not a matter for action of any kind by the Australian Government, but is not even a matter for political debate. While there are isolated references to nuclear weapons on the Parliamentary website, nowhere are nuclear weapons, nuclear posture, or the likelihood of nuclear war (and Australia's preparedness for that) anywhere on the political agenda. The mere prospect of the possible end of civilisation simply does not rate a mention anyplace.

Australia is living its own version of the Netflix movie (starring our own Kate Blanchette) 'Don't look Up'. We are in denial.

A letter was sent to Penny Wong, Richard Marles and Prime Minister Albanese urging action in UN First Committee and the upcoming NPT Review Conference in NY, approximately two weeks ago and is attached.

Australia could take from a smorgasbord of possible initiatives that would make a potentially civilisation-ending event sequence less likely. These include

--Signing and ratifying the TPNW

--Supporting No First Use of nuclear weapons

--Support for a range of nuclear risk reduction measures including de-alerting, and improved or resumed military to military communications (Hotlines)

--Support for a successor to the New START treaty which will expire within one or two months and for which a successor or an extension needs to be negotiated.

Australia is sitting on its hands in a 'Don't Look Up' posture. This is behaviour that critically threatens Australia's national security interest and the safety of all Australians. Our own security and our own national interest demand we take action.

John Hallam

Nuclear Disarmament Campaigner

People for Nuclear Disarmament

Human Survival Project

Convenor, PNND Australia

Co-Convenor, Abolition 2000 Nuclear Risk Reduction Working Group

Member, No First Use Global Steering Committee

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